The Momentous Change in China's Military Situation

#PUBLICATION NOTE

This edition of The Momentous Change in China's Military Situation has been prepared and revised for digital publication by the Institute of Marxism-Leninism-Maoism under the Central Committee of the Communist Party in Switzerland on the basis of the following edition: The Momentous Change in China's Military Situation, in the Selected Works of Mao Zedong, First English Edition, Vol. 4, Foreign Languages Press, Beijing, 1965.

#INTRODUCTION NOTE

This is a comment written by Comrade Mao Zedong for the New China News Agency in Xibaipo, Pingshan, Hebei, China. It was first published on the 14th of November, 1948.

Here, Comrade Mao Zedong, basing himself on the new situation, that is, the change in the relation of forces between the enemy and the people after the Liaoxi-Shenyang Campaign, made a new estimate of the time needed to win victory in the People's War of Liberation, and pointed out that the reactionary rule of the Nationalist Party could be overthrown in no more than a year from November 1948. Subsequent developments in China's military situation fully confirmed his prediction.

#Workers and oppressed people of the world, unite!

#THE MOMENTOUS CHANGE IN CHINA'S MILITARY SITUATION

#Mao Zedong

#14th of November, 1948

#★

The military situation in China has reached a new turning point, and the balance of forces between the two sides in the war has undergone a fundamental change. The People's Liberation Army, long superior in quality, has now become superior in numbers as well. This is a sign that the victory of the Chinese revolution and the realization of peace in China are at hand.

At the end of the second year of the war, that is, at the end of June this year, the Nationalist army still had a total of some 3'650'000 troops. This was 650'000 less than the 4'300'000 troops the Nationalist Party had in July 1946 when it started the countrywide civil war. The Nationalist Party recruited about 2'440'000 troops during the two years of war, which is the reason why the decrease was only 650'000, although in that period, approximately 3'090'000 were wiped out or captured, or deserted (2'640'000 were wiped out or captured). Recently a sudden change took place. In the first four months of the third year of the war, from the 1st of July to 2nd of November, when Shenyang was liberated, the Nationalist army lost 1'000'000 troops. Its replacements during these four months have not yet been ascertained; supposing it was able to recruit 300'000 troops, then the net decrease would be 700'000. Thus, the whole of the Nationalist Party's armed forces — army, navy, and air force, regulars and irregulars, combat troops and troops in the rear-service establishments — are now only some 2'900'000. On the other hand, the People's Liberation Army, which had 1'200'000 troops in June 1946, grew to 2'800'000 in June 1948, and has now increased to more than 3'000'000. Thus, the numerical superiority long enjoyed by the Nationalist army has rapidly turned into inferiority. This is the result of heroic fighting by the People's Liberation Army during the past four months in all the war theatres of the country; it is especially the result of the Sui-Qi and Ji'nan campaigns¹ on the southern front and of the Jinzhou, Changchun, Liaoxi, and Shenyang campaigns² on the northern front. Up to the end of June this year, the Nationalist Party still had designations for 285 divisions, because it had frantically incorporated its irregulars into its regular forces. In these four months, the battalions and larger units wiped out by the People's Liberation Army totaled 83 divisions, including 63 whole divisions.

Accordingly, the war will be much shorter than we originally estimated. The original estimate was that the reactionary Nationalist government could be completely overthrown in about five years, beginning from July 1946. As we now see it, only another year or so may be needed to overthrow it completely. A longer time will be needed, however, to eliminate the reactionary forces in all parts of the country and complete the liberation of the people.

The enemy is collapsing rapidly, but the Communists, the People's Liberation Army, and people of all walks of life throughout the country must continue to unite as one and redouble their efforts; only thus can we finally and completely wipe out the reactionary forces and build a united, democratic people's republic in the whole country.